'Cane Watchers

Almost all if not all of the reliable computer models at this time are forecasting development of a sub-tropical or tropical entity in the Northwest Caribbean or southern GOM this weekend into early next week. The GFS is hinting at the ridge of high pressure to build in and kick this system back westward into Florida as Fay was of 2008.  Shear is currently hostile in the area that this system would develop but SST's are high enough to support tropical development and an ULL is expected to form over this area and provide wind shear of 10 knots or less around the Florida Pennisula. If this pan's out we may have an early start to the 2009 Hurricane Season. I am forecasting a 40% chance that sub-tropical storm Ana develops next week. I will continue to monitor the situation and provide a more in-depth analysis this evening or Friday.

Yesterday May 13th,2009 our first official tropical wave of the 2009 Hurricane season was declared. Whether or not this wave will have any direct impact on the development the models are suggesting is not determined yet.

I will have an update later this evening or Friday!

Thanks - Joshua A. Pianesi (Canewatch Webmaster)