'Cane Watchers

Currently as is usual this time of year the Atlantic Basin is very quiet with no signs of tropical development in the coming days. However the GFS computer model has been consistent in developing a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm of some sort within the next 7-10 days. As it would seem this is quite far out in a forecast and is very unlikely to happen but because the GFS has been so consistent I am beggining to believe development may actually be possible. If other models jump aboard the GFS, development would be more likely and I would pay some serious attention to the Caribbean in the coming days.

Anyhow, with what we have to work with I will give you a short summary on this situation. Basically there is a few reasons development is possible and there are a few possibilitys that would inhibit development.

The GFS model is forecasting conditions in the Western Caribbean to become favorable with shear levels decreasing, moisture returning and some increase in SST's. Something else that would actually favor development is the fact that the upward pulse of the MJO is expected around the time the GFS is predicting development. This would leave plenty of moisture in the Caribbean for a system to feed off of and establish good outflow/inflow. In other words dry air should not be a problem if this situation pans out.

Well that's about it...GFS is running the show for now untill something really does happen .

I will update as needed. Thanks - Joshua A. Pianesi